Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

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dann
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Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » mån 21 jun 2021, 21:54

Other newspapers already lied about Sweden's successful vaccine roll-out, so why not Aftonbladet, too?!
I förra veckan kom besked att flera länder bett EU att sluta leverera covid-vaccin. De hade inga möjligheter att göra av med doserna eftersom en så stor del av befolkningen vägrade eller var ointresserad av att ta vaccin.
EU-kommissionen ville inte peka ut vilka länder det var men det kröp snart fram att Bulgarien och Rumänien är två av dem.
I Rumänien är det hittills bara dryga 22 procent som blivit vaccinerade med en första dos. I Bulgarien är det 13 procent. Motsvarande siffra för USA och Sverige är dryga 50 procent.
Oroande utveckling av vaccinationer (June 21, 2021)
USA, June 20:
Fully vaccinated 44.75%
First dose 52.95
Sweden, June 18:
Fully vaccinated 23,93%
First dose 42,73%

Are Swedish journalists just ignorant about Sweden's way of calculating the percentages of vaccinated people, i.e. only counting the adult population? Or do they do this deliberately?

See my post about the vaccine roll-out, June 13, 2021.

dann
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Blev medlem: sön 24 maj 2020, 17:18

Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » mån 21 jun 2021, 22:00

Nemesis skrev:
mån 21 jun 2021, 18:40
De vill skydda sig själva, men har inga som helst problem med att offra er på flockimmunitetens altare.
The double standards are glaringly obvious, but I haven't seen the problem mentioned in the Swedish media.

ETA: My bad!
Måndagens misstroendeomröstning i riksdagen bevisar hur felaktig den svenska coronastrategin är. Munskydden i riksdagen under omröstningen borde bli startpunkten för en ny svensk coronastrategi, skriver överläkaren Jan Lötvall.
Insändare. ”Munskydden i riksdagen borde starta ny coronastrategi” (DN, June 21, 2021)

dann
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Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » tis 22 jun 2021, 17:31

The war on values during the pandemic
During this thought provoking episode, Prof. Yaneer Bar-Yam discusses the nature of complex systems and complexity science. Our discussion covers the cacophony of signals within the information environment and how complexity science provides tools for understanding system dynamics. Prof. Bar-Yam also reports his scientific findings related to the COVID pandemic which he and his colleagues at NECSI have observed. He asserts that values are emergent properties of our cultural and social systems and that values are the West’s biggest vulnerability. He unpacks how our value system is being undermined. Ultimately, we are in a war of values. The conversation concludes with Prof. Bar-Yam describing what he believes is the “killer app” for today’s world, which consists of a positive valued system of networked teams of people who care about each other and who counter alienating forces. He believes that complexity science can be a a fundamental capability which undergirds global networks of intentional teams with compassionate, “can do” attitudes.
Bar-Yam on Complex Systems and the War on Values (Information Professionals Association (IPA))
JorgenPonder has a brief summary of the first part of the podcast in this short thread:
Lyssnar på Bar-Yam om komplexitet och bl a desinformation, kommit halvvägs. I ljuset av dessa resonemang uppenbart att svensk media & FoHM tidigt överväldigades av information, stängde ned och gick på instinkt. Tegnell har ju t o m refererat till Fat Emperors YouTube-videos.
Listen to NECSI President, @yaneerbaryam discuss complexity science and the War on Values on the Information Professionals Association* Cognitive Crucible podcast.
@InfoProAssnNECSI on Twitter (June 22, 2021)
jorgenponder on Twitter (June 22, 2021)
"Gick på instinkt" seems to be the right term to describe a pandemic response based on Johan Giesecke's magkänsla.
Kina, Sydkorea & NZ har visat hur man gör. Men det finns desinfo att andra länder inte kan göra det. Var kom den tron från?
USA har klappat igenom i den här krisen jämfört med självbild. Värderingar är akilleshälen i kris. Att värdera liv tog stryk, varför?
(...)
Den andra värderingen som slog igenom var "can't do", en fatalism anammades som värdering. Och det var Väst som gjorde det! Bl a därför att Kina klarade det, bisarrt nog.
Den tredje värderingen som försvann var den om solidaritet, istället konflikt (gäller USA men inte SE?).
jorgenponder on Twitter (June 22, 2021)

dann
Inlägg: 1498
Blev medlem: sön 24 maj 2020, 17:18

Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » tis 22 jun 2021, 22:07

A bunch of new ones from Folksagomyndigheten.
This one almost makes me think that he has seen the steady stream of posts from Tokig tant about apples and pears:
Det ger en lite orättvis bild
att jämföra mellan länder
som haft helt olika strategier.
Folksagomyndigheten (June 22, 2021)

dann
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Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » ons 23 jun 2021, 05:38

May 2020, Giesecke encourages India to follow Sweden's herd-immunity-by-infection strategy:
"skip the lockdown, take care of the old and the frail people, and let the other people have the infection."
Maj 2020
Johan Giesecke uppmanar Indien att släppa på stora restriktioner och istället smittas av Covid19.
Johan Giesecke om Indien #bytstrateginu on YouTube (April 28, 2021)
In English with Swedish subtitles, 1 min.

dann
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Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » ons 23 jun 2021, 12:06

ETA: In May, unlike in March, Johan Gieseck knew exactly how successful his pandemic strategy had been in Sweden: allegedly protecting the old and the frail while letting the virus cause herd immunity by infection in the rest of he population.
Did he expect it to be easier to protect the old and the frail in India while letting "the other people have the infection"?
This is a guy who, under the guise of representing scientific expertise, deliberately and well-aware of the harm it will do tries to persuade a Third-World country to let the virus loose upon the population.

At this point, the Indian death toll from Covid-19 is 390,000 - and counting.
India still has far fewer deaths per million, 280, than Sweden, 1,437, and there is reason to hope that vaccines will help prevent many more:
India's vaccinations hit record with free COVID shots (Reuters, June 22, 2021)

dann
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Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » ons 23 jun 2021, 12:30

Evidensbaserade åtgärder
The people who are giving the ad hominems are saying, 'Ah, Fauci misled us. First he said no masks, then he said masks.'
Well, let me give you a flash. That's the way science works. You work with the data you have at the time. It is essential as a scientist that you evolve your opinion and your recommendations based on the data as it evolves. That is the nature of science. It is a self-correcting process.
And that's the reason why I say people who then criticize me about that are actually criticizing science. It was not a change because I felt like flip-flopping. It was a change because the evidence changed, the data changed.
'That's the way science works': Fauci fires back at critics (CNN on YouTube, June 21, 2021)
When it stops being a self-correcting process, it stops being science. And in some cases, it was never science in the first place.

dann
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Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » ons 23 jun 2021, 14:14

Statistik om SARS-CoV-2 virusvarianter av särskild betydelse (FoHM, June 18, 2021)
It still doesn't tell us the percentage of positive cases that are gene-sequenced on a national and a regional level.

Nemesis
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Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av Nemesis » ons 23 jun 2021, 22:06

dann skrev:
ons 23 jun 2021, 12:30
Evidensbaserade åtgärder
The people who are giving the ad hominems are saying, 'Ah, Fauci misled us. First he said no masks, then he said masks.'
Well, let me give you a flash. That's the way science works. You work with the data you have at the time. It is essential as a scientist that you evolve your opinion and your recommendations based on the data as it evolves. That is the nature of science. It is a self-correcting process.
And that's the reason why I say people who then criticize me about that are actually criticizing science. It was not a change because I felt like flip-flopping. It was a change because the evidence changed, the data changed.
'That's the way science works': Fauci fires back at critics (CNN on YouTube, June 21, 2021)
When it stops being a self-correcting process, it stops being science. And in some cases, it was never science in the first place.
Tänk om någon kunde informera Anders Tegnell om detta.

Steven Novella skrev en bra bloggpost om "Fauci's e-mails" som jag sett att även svenska covidioter börjat köra med.
"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." - John Kenneth Galbraith

dann
Inlägg: 1498
Blev medlem: sön 24 maj 2020, 17:18

Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » tor 24 jun 2021, 09:27

Nemesis skrev:
ons 23 jun 2021, 22:06
dann skrev:
ons 23 jun 2021, 12:30
Evidensbaserade åtgärder
The people who are giving the ad hominems are saying, 'Ah, Fauci misled us. First he said no masks, then he said masks.'
Well, let me give you a flash. That's the way science works. You work with the data you have at the time. It is essential as a scientist that you evolve your opinion and your recommendations based on the data as it evolves. That is the nature of science. It is a self-correcting process.
And that's the reason why I say people who then criticize me about that are actually criticizing science. It was not a change because I felt like flip-flopping. It was a change because the evidence changed, the data changed.
'That's the way science works': Fauci fires back at critics (CNN on YouTube, June 21, 2021)
When it stops being a self-correcting process, it stops being science. And in some cases, it was never science in the first place.
Tänk om någon kunde informera Anders Tegnell om detta.
As fact resistant as he is, it wouldn't make any difference.
Nemesis skrev:
ons 23 jun 2021, 22:06
Steven Novella skrev en bra bloggpost om "Fauci's e-mails" som jag sett att även svenska covidioter börjat köra med.
From Novella's blogpost:
But if the incidence of illness is high, then there was already evidence that wearing a mask reduces risk. In the early days, before the extent of the spread to the US was known, you could defend the position that wearing a mask in the general population was not necessary. Also at the time they were concerned about a mask shortage, and did not want low-risk people taking masks from high-risk workers.
The mask shortage was the reason why Denmark didn't have mandatory use of face masks for ordinary people during the first wave. It was feared that people would would buy and hoard them, so professionals who needed them (hospital and nursery-home workers) wouldn't have access to face masks. When the lockdown had hammered down the first wave and testing capacity had been ramped up, the spread was deemed to be so low that face masks in the general population wasn't necessary. (It would have been if the country had aimed for ZeroCovid ...)

When the number of new infections began to rise again in mid-August when everybody went back to work or school, the mandatory wearing of face-masks on public transport was introduced, and it seemed to have an effect, at first: the numbers went down. But that precaution alone wasn't enough to stop a second wave.

I wonder if Tegnell's idea that Sweden's second wave started later than in other countries was due to the low level of testing in Sweden, but it may also have been due to Sweden's very low population density, an obstacle that might prevent the virus from spreading rapidly to all communities. A map of the spread of the virus in Sweden in the fall of 2020 might throw a light on this, but I don't remember seeing any.

dann
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Blev medlem: sön 24 maj 2020, 17:18

Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » tor 24 jun 2021, 10:40

News from Folksagomyndigheten - Tillsammans bromsar vi vetenskap och logik:
Det finns de som tror att Deltan
kan drabba förskolabarnen hårt
I höst, men med lite tur kanske
de redan är immuna då.
Folksagomyndigheten on Twitter (June 24, 2021)

dann
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Blev medlem: sön 24 maj 2020, 17:18

Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » tor 24 jun 2021, 12:58

More double standards:
Folkhälsomyndighetens generaldirektör skärpte restriktionerna när smittan skenade.
Sedan åkte Johan Carlson själv 72 mil från sin bostad i Uppsala till ett exklusivt gårdshotell i skånska Skivarp – för att gå på vinprovning och övernatta.
Han har dessutom gjort fler lyxiga resor under pandemin, visar Expressens granskning.
– Det är inte resan i sig utan hur man reser och uppträder på resmålet som är avgörande för om en resa kan anses vara lämplig, säger han.
Carlsons vinresa – mitt i skärpta restriktionerna (Expressen, June 24, 2021)
Pandemic restrictions don't apply to the rich and powerful, obviously.

Nemesis
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Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av Nemesis » tor 24 jun 2021, 18:16

American Academy of Pediatrics

“We strongly encourage everyone age 12 and older...to get vaccinated, as the benefits of vaccination far outweigh any harm.” Read our full statement with @HHSGov, @CDCgov and others from today’s meeting on myocarditis here: http://ow.ly/ziK950Fh5Xa #VaccinesWork #ThisIsOurShot

https://twitter.com/AmerAcadPeds/status ... 1930928129
Såhär låter det tyvärr inte i Sverige. :(
"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." - John Kenneth Galbraith

Nemesis
Inlägg: 2449
Blev medlem: tor 12 okt 2006, 22:04
Ort: Stockholm

Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av Nemesis » tor 24 jun 2021, 18:57

I den svenska debatten har det ibland hävdats att genomgången infektion av Covid ger bättre skydd än vaccin. Se detta från Agnes Wold:
Värt att notera är att immunitet som uppkommer efter genomgången infektion är mycket bredare, eftersom den riktar sig mot olika delar av viruset. Så immunitet efter genomgången sjukdom är mycket mindre känslig för om viruset muterar>

https://twitter.com/AgnesWold/status/13 ... 3938080770
Men stämmer det? Föga förvånande inte:
Fact check: COVID-19 vaccines provide safer, more consistent immunity than infection

COVID-19vaccines offer more consistent protection than infection

While the jury's still out on whether natural immunity or vaccine immunity provides longer-lasting protection against COVID-19, research suggests that, overall, vaccination is the better bet.

Why? Vaccines provide more consistent protection, for starters.

"Recovery from COVID results in very variable immunity to a second infection, and this is reflected in the wide range of anti-spike antibodies in recovered patients," McFadden said. "On the other hand, the immunity from the vaccines (especially the messenger RNA versions) is much more uniform, both in terms of protection from COVID and in anti-spike antibody levels."

Preliminary research backs that up.

An April 20 paper awaiting peer review — and cited by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases — found that people who had received two doses of shots from Pfizer or Moderna had antibody levels "up to 10 times" higher than those of a natural infection.

But those natural infection levels vary widely. The same Science magazine paper that found natural immunity lasts at least eight months also found some COVID-19 survivors had immunity levels 100 times higher than other survivors.

...

Then there are the coronavirus variants.

"Antibodies elicited by infection do not neutralize the currently circulating coronavirus variants as efficiently as antibodies elicited by mRNA vaccination," Scott Hensley, an associate professor of microbiology at the University of Pennsylvania, said in an email.

Public health officials are monitoring six notable variants circulating in the U.S., all of which appear to spread more easily than other coronavirus strains. It depends on the variant and vaccine, but research indicates the three coronavirus vaccines authorized for emergency use in the U.S. work at least to some degree against the variants.

"The higher your degree of immune response against the wild-type (coronavirus), the greater the secondary coverage you have against a wide array of variants," Fauci said during a June 8 White House press briefing.
Tänk om Sverige hade en skeptikerorganisation som strävade efter att sprida vetenskaplig kunskap bland allmänheten och motverka den typ av desinformation som bland andra Agnes Wold sprider.
"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." - John Kenneth Galbraith

dann
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Blev medlem: sön 24 maj 2020, 17:18

Re: Vilka nationella eller regionala åtgärder mot coronavirus är evidensbaserade?

Inlägg av dann » tor 24 jun 2021, 19:16

Vaccinations in the Nordic countries:

Denmark
”Vi har gennemgået data, og vurderer at Comirnaty® er både meget sikker og meget effektiv hos 12-15-årige børn. Selvom vi har høj tilslutning i de nuværende målgrupper, som omfatter ca. 83 % af befolkningen, så vurderer vi også, at en udvidelse af målgruppen til de 12-15-årige er nødvendig, for at sikre endnu større immunitet i befolkningen, og dermed sikre kontrol med epidemien i Danmark. Det har vi brug for, før vi går ind i næste vintersæson i Danmark, også i lyset af, at mere smitsomme virusvarianter kan vinde frem. Og så har vi brug for det, for at vi kan beskytte uvaccinerede personer og personer, der ikke har fuld effekt af vaccinen, mod alvorlig sygdom”, siger Søren Brostrøm, direktør i Sundhedsstyrelsen.
(...)
Halvdelen af årgang 2005 er allerede blevet inviteret til vaccination, da de er fyldt 16 år. Med baggrund i den nye anbefaling vil Sundhedsstyrelsen inden længe invitere resten af årgang 2005, som er unge, der fylder 16 år senere i år, og de vil således blive de første 15 årige, der bliver tilbudt vaccination. Vaccinationen af årgang 2006 til 2009 inkl. vil blive planlagt og udmeldt efter sommerferien.
Sundhedsstyrelsen anbefaler vaccination af 12-15-årige (Sundhedsstyrelsen, June 17, 2021)
Norway doesn't yet seem to have plans to vaccinate kids younger than 18 - except high-risk 12-17-year-olds:
Koronavaksine (Helsenorge.no)

The current vaccine plan in Finland intends to have everybody 16 and older vaccinated:
4. other persons than those in priority groups 1–3. Vaccines will be administered in descending order as follows: 60–69-year-olds, 50–59-year-olds, 40–49-year-olds, 30–39-year-olds and 16–29-year-olds.
Coronavirus and vaccine candidates (Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, June 22, 2021)
At this point, Iceland is vaccinating everybody 12+. Ten percent (or more) of 12-15-year-olds have already had the first shot. 47 percent of 16-29-year-olds are fully vaccinated: What’s the status of COVID-19 vaccination in Iceland? (Iceland Review, June 15, 2021)

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