Printzensköld skrev: ↑
lör 27 jun 2020, 18:42
Vilken smittnivå man bör ligga på i dagsläget har jag svårt att ha någon åsikt om.
I would recommend as close to 0 as possible. Like New Zealand, Iceland or the Faroe Islands. Or Norway and Finland even though they aren't quite there yet.
Nu har vi lärt oss att skydda riskgrupperna på ett helt annat sätt och det viktiga är att intensivvårdsfallen sjunker i stadig takt. Jag har inget principiellt emot att i brist på vaccin öka den gemensamma immuniteten genom smittspridning under kontrollerade former. Tycker bara att det är dumt försöka sig på att göra det med öppna spjäll omedelbart när smittan kommer.
This disease is so contagious that it doesn't seem to be possible to practice "smittspridning under kontrollerade former".
If you can point at a country or even a region that has had success with that strategy, I'd like to hear about it. I also don't really see what the point of "öka den gemensamma immuniteten genom smittspridning"
is supposed to be. I know that the point of herd immunity is to vaccinate
(and not infect!
) a percentage of the population large enough to make sure that a new case, somebody arriving from another country, for instance, won't cause an outbreak that spreads to the vulnerable members of the 'herd', those whose immune systems are so compromised that they can't tolerate being vaccinated themselves, so they will be protected by the 'herd'. And you will never
get to that level of immunity by means of letting the virus run more or less wild.
Even Anders Tegnell seems to have understood this now.
Kan tänka mig en modifierad version av "hammaren och dansen" där man inte har för avsikt att vänta på vaccin utan långsamt försöker att öka immuniteten naturligt samtidigt som man effektivt skyddar riskgrupperna. Är det möjligt?
I don't think so. I can't imagine that it is. This modified version of the Hammer & the Dance
, which seems to have been the ideal of the Swedish strategy, would still at the very least have required constant surveillance of the rate of infection, which would have required massive testing and was never done. Like I've said before: Sweden was flying blind! And when you start testing, contact tracing, and isolating/quarantining, it would be absurd to practice "smittspridning under kontrollerade former".
What would be your preferred infection rate at that point? Would you put a limit on contact tracing to make sure that there would still be asymptomatic spreaders of infection out there?
Anyway, the question is hypothetical since Sweden has a long way to go to get to that stage. Even if "intensivvårdsfallen sjunker i stadig takt"
, which is a good thing, obviously, a comparison with Norway, Finland and Denmark makes it obvious how far you still have to go:
And yet they (Sweden) had 50 Covid-19 deaths today and 303 new cases. Today Denmark, Norway and Finland combined had 2 deaths and 98 new cases, and it was one of the worst days this week.
Sweden has 171 patients in ICUs. Denmark, Norway and Finland have 16! Combined!
Covid-19 and Politics
(ISF, June 26, 2020)