pwm skrev: ↑
fre 11 jun 2021, 08:42
I sammanhanget kan det vara intressant att titta på regionala skillnader, inom ett och samma land som lever under samma "strategi". Danmark (ursäkta om jag nu tar ett exempel igen, det är inte avsett som ett tävlingsmoment) har framhållits som ett föredöme, men har just nu högst smittspridning i Europa
med sina 215 fall per 100k innevånare (genomsnitt över 2 veckor), följt av Nederländerna (204) och Lettland (203) -- men de regionala skillnaderna är stora; läget är avsevärt värre på norra Jylland, på norra Själland och på Bornholm! Varför är det så? Man kan noterar att en annan Östersjö-ö, Gotland, har framhållits som ett exempel på misslyckad strategi, trots att regionen Gotland har färst fall per innevånare i Sverige
. Hur ska man då uppfatta Bornholm vis-á-vi
Nordsjælland and Bornholm aren't hard hit. I live in one of the hardest hit municipalities, Frederiksberg, which in currently #4 in "antallet af nye smittede per 100.000 indbyggere"
(148 per 100,000/week). Scroll down to the map of Denmark: Her er smittetrykket højest
and below that one Udviklingen for kommunerne tættest på nedlukning.
The rate of new infections in Bornholm is very
low: 33 per 100.000/week. I can't see what made you think that Bornholm is high on the list, and it would surprise me if it were since it is one of the best vaccinated areas:
Scroll down to the map of Denmark: Hvor er der vaccineret flest i de danske kommuner?
Bornhom: fully vaccinated 35.9%; first dosis only 61.6%. (In Denmark, the percentage is calculated based on the whole
population, not just the adult
population like in Sweden.)
Since I can't see exactly where you got your numbers, I don't know what went wrong, so I will have to venture a guess: For statistical purposes, Bornholm is sometimes counted as a part of the Copenhagen region, and the Copenhagen region has been very hard hit throughout most of the pandemic. Nordsjælland not so much, also less densely populated and better vaccinated, at this point. Since there are many young people in the Copenhagen area, the vaccinations are lagging behind most other Danish regions.
Let me recommend that you also scroll further down on the TV2.dk page Dagens coronatal
and take a look at the map of Europe: Her er andelen af smittede steget mest den seneste uge I Europa.
The country that stands out on the map is neither Denmark (+805 pr. min. indb. den seneste uge) nor the Netherlands (+777 pr. mio. indb.). It's Sweden (1.388 pr. min. indb.) Denmark's number is from June 9, Sweden's and the Netherlands' from June 10.
Your ECDC link says, "Data for Sweden is incomplete for week 2021-21 due to a disruption to the national database on notifiable diseases (SmiNet)."
But I can tell you this about the Danish strategy in recent months:
Based on all numbers, the Danish health authorities calculated that if some of the restrictions were eased, the numbers would rise so slowly that the spread of the virus would not get out of hand until the vaccination program would catch up with it. This calculation wasn't 100 percent certain, which those things never are, and it was almost ruined when the AZ and J&J vaccines were scrapped. And Denmark had a couple of spring weeks when kontakttallet
(corresponding to the R0
rose to 1 and 1.1, so at that stage, Denmark's numbers were rising while the numbers of most European countries were going down thanks to lockdowns and restrictions.
scroll down to: Sådan har kontakttallet ændret sig
I didn't agree with this policy. I think Denmark should have gone for ZeroCovid. But the plans and calculations turned out to have been pretty good because they were actually evidensbaserade.
The Danish public health authorities had real
data on which to base their calculations.
Hope is (still) not a strategy!
Neither is magkänsla.
You need to get the facts
right, which shouldn't come as a surprise to skeptics.